Agri bills and Rajya sabha commotion

 Indian Central Govt. successfully pushed  3 Farm bills through both the Houses of Parliament last week. Since the ruling NDA led by BJP has a majority in the lower house i.e Lok Sabha the passage of these bills happened without any hiccup there. But when the same bills had to be passed by the higher house i.e Rajya Sabha, where NDA has a thin majority, pandemonium reigned and all hell broke loose. But the Chairman of the house went by voice vote amidst allegations that he chose to ignore the call for division of the house.

Now the opposition is upset not by the farm bills per see but the way it was carried by the Chairman by the Upper house by not allowing them to stall this reform in the garb of discussions et al. Several Agricultural Commissions and Committees incl the Sen Committee and Dr.Swaminathan Comittee over the last 30 years, have strongly suggested on this unshackling of Agri markets across the country. This reform is long overdue. Even Congress Govt. wanted to implement this and it is in their election manifesto. But due to the reversal of roles, now Congress does not want this to be passed by Modi in order to deny him the credit for this. It is nothing but opportunism and blinded by the hatred for Modi ,UPA wants  Indian farmers to suffer.

The three reform bills passed and approved by the President are :

1)Farmers' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Bill, 2020.:-This bill aims to promote barrier-free interstate and intra-state trade in agricultural produce;

2)Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement of Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill, 2020:- This is for allowing farmers to engage with processors, aggregators, wholesalers, large retailers and exporters directly;

3)Essential Commodities (Amendment) Bill, 2020:-to generally liberalise the regulatory environment for the farmers and to free them from the clutches of middlemen.

The twist in the tale which adds spice to the whole drama has been clearly brought out in this article by Sanjay Jha(link) when he says Dr.Man Mohan Singh went on television when UPA was ruling, to assure the farmers that by a similar action of passing the farm bills their lives would be made better and he tried to assuage their hurt feelings. When the agri reforms ordinance was promulgated in May 2020, pl. note the tone and tenor of agri economists like Prof Ashok Gulati who backed these ordinances hailing this as "the 1991 moment "for agri reforms.(link)

People who are now opposing the momentous changes to be ushered through these far-reaching farm bills are those who have vested interests in the continuation of status quo. There are many middlemen who make money and lend/give easy money to politicians try to block these bills. Many of them do not pay income tax by showing that their income is agricultural income. Now this lot is in dire straits and does not want to let go off the golden goose from their hands. By supporting these elements the opposition is revealing their colours to the public scrutiny.

With many assemble elections around the corner, politicians are trying to portray themselves as the saviour of the farmers by misleading the gullible farmers against these reforms.  By repeating a lie, that Govt will abolish MSP, they are stoking the farmers' fears and are trying to create panic and chaos among the farmers. This is despite PM Modi assuring on the floor of the Parliament that the MSP mechanism will not be revoked at any point in time in the future.

The farmers must see through these games played by the opposition parties, and understand that more choices for them to market their produce will not set them back both financially as well as socially. They should look at the stories of ITC eChoupal, Mahindra's, Amul's agri ventures, and emulate them by evolving their cooperative community farming to further their dreams in those lines.

When fruits, vegetables and milk are sold liberally without the MSP crutches, farmers must introspect and understand that MSPs help only 6% of the total agricultural output in the country.

Multiple avenues to market their farm output will only lead them to a better future!!

CAG report on IT disputes and appeals

 

Comptroller and Auditor General of India(CAG) is the top Govt Auditor of India, who is a Constitutional authority. He Audits all the Central and State Govt related accounts and gives his report with his findings, lacunae observed in the system, along with necessary corrective measures as per the best practices around the world.

In his latest report on the Income & Corporate  Tax department functioning under the Central Govt, he has given some damning statistics. People in the know feel vindicated with his report lashing at the ineptitude of the Dept in tackling the inefficiency of the tax bureaucracy.

Let us look at some of his key observations:(link)

1)Income tax arrears of demand has increased from Rs.11 lac cr.in 2017-18 to Rs.12.3 lac cr, in 2018-19.

2) Out of this Rs.12.3 lac cr. the Tax dept itself says 99% of it is non-collectible or in other words, would be difficult to recover.

3)At the CIT Appeals, which is the first forum of Appeals,the Auditor observed, the number of cases has gone up from 3 lacs in 17-18 to 3.4 lacs in 18-19 and the total amount locked up has gone up from Rs.5.19 lac cr to Rs.5.6 lac cr.

4)The above amount of Rs.5.6 lac cr is more than the revenue deficit of the Central Govt for the relevant year, the CAG has remarked.

5)The total cases pending at the higher courts i.e ITAT/High Court/Supreme Court have gone up from 82000 in 17-18 to 1.35 lacs in 18-19, which is a whopping 65% jump.

6)CAG also observed that "there have been persistent and pervasive irregularities in respect of Corporation tax and Income tax assessments cases over the years.Recurrence of such irregularities, despite being pointed out repeatedly in the earlier Audit reports point to structural weaknesses on the part of the Department as well as the absence of appropriate institutional mechanism to address this".

7)The auditor has reviewed 2.72 lakh out of 2.99 lakh cases taken up by the I-T department for scrutiny during 2017-18. CAG has also audited 60,000 cases of scrutiny assessments completed in the earlier financial years. CAG found an incidence of errors in assessments checked in audit at 6% (19,768 cases), as against 6.45% in the previous year.

8)More than 82% of individual taxpayers faced TDS mismatch problems during the last three years resulting in disallowance of refund and the creation of avoidable harassment of taxpayers who are mostly middle-class salary earners.

All the above are reflections of deep-rooted malaise plaguing the system of assessments, appeals etc. The tax department is afflicted by the disease of "Appealititis" as per one of the earlier observations of CAG. The tax bureaucracy always plays safe disregarding well-founded precedent judgements of ITAT/HC and even SC, which are in favour of assessees.They conjure up a point of differentiation from precedent judgments which may sometime look contrived, trivial,frivolous, flimsy, and they blow it out of proportion to suit their arguments. The tax department is addicted to filing appeals against the hapless and penniless assessees even after SC ruling against it.This is the special caprice of the experts in the Tax dept, which drives the assessees bankrupt , if not mad. 

You add the judicial delay to this and the cost of fighting these mostly infructuous appeals and what you get is a heady decoction of endless litigation!!!The cost of all this finally falls on the honest taxpayers.

Honest taxpayers still wait for the fructification of the vision of our PM who has drawn a charter for Honouring the Honest.Hope it does not become an endless wait!

Altman Z score and RBI Kamath committee ratios.

 Edward Altman published the Z score formula for predicting bankruptcy way back in 1968. He said this formula can be judiciously used to find whether any company may go into bankruptcy within the next two years. It is a quick find formula to gauge the financial health for publicly held companies by using the P&L values and Balance sheet values through a mix of business ratios.

In simple terms Z =1.2X1+1.4X2+3.3X3+0.6X4+1.0X5, where

X1= Working capital/Total assets.i.e the ratio of liquid assets in relation to the total assets or size of the Co.

X2=Retained earnings/Total assets i.e the ratio of retained profit in relation to the total assets of the Co.

X3=EBIT/Total Assets i.e the ratio of efficiency of the operations without the impact of leveraging, in relation to the assets deployed in the Co.also signifying the importance of operating earnings for the long term financial health of the Co.

X4=market capitalisation/book value of total liabilities i.e the ratio of market price in relation to the total liabilities incl. borrowings are  considered as a reflection financial health;

X5= Total sales/ Total assets i.e the ratio of assets turnover indicating how well the assets are utilised to generate the sales.

There are some variations for privately held companies and for service cos.

What is the necessity for delving into this formula of bankruptcy now? RBI appointed KV Kamath Committee has come out with similar ratios for the use of banks in identifying distress among the Indian business companies with various ratio values depending on the kind of business the cos concerned are in.

The Committee came out with the following ratios, that were selected based on their relevance for Resolution Plan for the distressed cos. when their loans are put to restructuring by the banks. 

1)Total outside liabilities(TOL)/Adjusted Tangible Networth(ATNW)i.e Adjusted Net of investments;

2)Total Debt/EBIDTA ;

3)Current Ratio;

4)Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR);i.e the ratio of the addition of the net cash accruals with interest and finance charges divided by the addition of the current portion of the long-term debt with interest and finance charges.

5) Average Debt Service Coverage Ratio (ADSCR) i.e average over the loan period.

All these ratios are highly relevant with a well-defined threshold for various industries of the domestic economy including that of services, for those looking at the financial health of the Companies. Many Credit Rating Agencies also use many of these ratios. Perhaps, the Altman Z score may also be included for evaluating the preponderance to bankruptcy among the Co.s  under the distressed category seeking their bank loans to be restructured.

Law of Averages,Regression to the Mean and the Walk down the Dalal Street!

 Sir Francis Galton, a British polymath, did pioneering work on Regression or Reversion to the Mean in Statistical Research in the late 19th Century. According to his analysis of human characteristics, he applied statistical methods to the study of human differences and inheritance of intelligence and pioneered the work on Eugenics. He also contributed to the field of psychology by founding psychometrics with personality mapping.

He was a versatile genius and being the half-cousin to Charles Darwin, his works in many ways drew sufficient inspiration from Darwin's studies. But his most outstanding contribution is Regression to the Mean in Statistical analysis. He is also considered to have developed a central limit theorem showing that with sufficient sample size the binomial distribution approximates a Normal Distribution and the practical demonstration of it is called Galton Board or Quincunx or Bean machine

Regression to the Mean is in simple terms that if there is volatility observed over the mean, over a while the values will show Regression to the Mean/Average and Francis Galton termed it as Regression to the Mediocrity in terms of inherited human characteristics. This led to modern statistical modeling based on linear regression analysis.

Regression to the Mean is also important to understand the stock market behaviour. Stock market behaviour is considered to be a Random walk and the financial world which considers a normal world will always look for stable returns. Jeremy Siegel said that "return to the mean" may show that returns may be unstable in the short term but stable in the long run. In such a situation the returns can be easily quantified and not a Random walk. But the stock market exhibits typical Random Walk characteristics. A Random Walk is one in which future steps or directions cannot be predicted based on past actions or performance. But Dalal street would hate to call its three-piece suit executives , who carry an air of super cat financial strategists,  as "Random Walkers"!!(link). The central hypothesis of Random walk is that one cannot consistently outperform the market averages. In other words, even the best of financial strategies would eventually start regressing to the mean.

The law of averages which is a law of large numbers gives false belief and therefore it is called "Gamblers' fallacy". It leads to the misconception that the probability of an outcome occurs with a small number of consecutive experiments so they will have to "average out" sooner rather than later. This is the fallacy that rules the mind of every gambler and that is why it is called "gambler's fallacy". Stock market ups and downs can also lead to this kind of fallacy in the short term.

Dalal Street is a minefield for the uninitiated and a good playground for those who have an appetite for a long walk or for those lethargists who buy indexed bonds, sleepover them and don't go for a walk!!

Indian politicians -their precept and practice

 It is said "there is a world of difference between precept and practice"- more so with our politicians and the gap widens when they speak about it more.!!

It is generally thought that Political lies are always for exploiting the ignorance of the public. Mostly they are manipulative for winning the elections. But there are times like Obama lies about Health care inorder to push through some legislation to benefit the larger society(link).

However coming to India, Politicians throw promises at the people mainly to win elections and then they renege on the promises made.

In the recent few weeks there are lot of accusations by the Opposition parties against the Central Govt that Question Hour in the ensuing Parliament has been abolished muzzling the freedom of MPs to ask Govt questions about peoples' problems to elicit answers from the Govt. But there are two stark statistics contradicting the so-called champions of freedom of expression in the Opposition. In the last few years Question hour in the parliament has been wasted for 60% of the time by the unruly Oppositions marring the proceedings of the house. Another interesting point is that in the Opposition ruled West Bengal Question Hour has been suspended by the Govt in view of the prevailing pandemic.!!

So this is clearly double standards adopted by the Opposition and it is raised against the Central Govt only to embarrass it and score some brownie points in the media.

Many of the Opposition ruled State Govts prune the budget of the local bodies saying that the State level finances are severely constrained. But if the Central Govt does it, all of them raise their voices against the Centre saying that the Central-State relationship is severely undermined and the trust of cooperative federalism has been betrayed by the Centre. They have no such qualms when they repress the local bodies by not releasing the funds to them. These are the doublespeak adopted by the opposition parties as a matter of right and pride.Our society does not relish this behaviour of politicians which they do not understand.

Centre and States are like two important organs of the body which is India. Both must work in tandem and in coordinated rhythm. Brain cannot let the Heart down and Heart cannot afford to stop blood supply to Brain. They cannot be at loggerheads with each other. This is the fundamental concept which Politicians must keep in their minds while performing and discharging their Constitutional duties.

India, its agriculture lending a helping hand during the pandemic!

 India's agriculture has hit a new high when the entire country is under lockdown and the industry has hit the rock bottom.Kharif sowing as on 5th Sep20 has reached 1095 lakh hectares which is 6% more than what was the sown area in kharif season 19-20.The acreage of paddy has grown by 8% to 396 lac hec.over previous year.The acreage under Oilseeds has grown by 12% to 195 LH; Pulses by 5%  to 137 LH; Cotton by 3% to 129 LH and Coarse cereals by 2% to 179 LH.This has been facilitated by 9% increase in rainfall during June-Sep 20 to 795mm.

All five summer grown Oilseeds has seen higher than anticipated increase in their respective MSPs  and better procurement during the initial months of Covid pandemic phase.The increase in Minimum Support Prices including that of Paddy announced at the beginning of Kharif season in june 20 has really helped in increasing the sowing area and in augmenting the revenue of the farmer.

That apart, India has witnessed a 23% increase in farm exports dominated by Rice and Sugar, in the Q1 of Fy 20-21. These are all heartening news from the agri sector.

However the worrying patches, in the otherwise bright outlook,are the outstanding dues of over Rs.14.2K Cr. of Sugar Mills in UP to the cane growers. The State Govt has raised the FRP(Fair & Remunerative Price) by Rs.10 on an average as a policy measure during this cane crushing season, starting Oct 1.Sugar Mills have approached the Govt for a subsidy to pay the farmers in order to tide over the Covid induced difficulties.

Modi Govt has also constituted a Agri Infra Fund of Rs.1 lac cr. The Infra Fund is for catalysing the Agri-infra development and help build pivotal infrastructures like warehouses, cold storage, and nurture farm assets. This will bring about a increase in Agri share of GDP in the economy from 15% approx and thus improve the livelihood of those dependant on agriculture.(link GDP).

Modi Govt has promised doubling of farmers' income  by 2022 which is a daunting task ahead and Govt. is well focussed on this with far reaching structural changes made in the last few months by amending Essential Commodities Act and by liberalising farm trade , land leasing for agriculture across the country.

Now the country is looking forward to the Rabi season.

Compensation to States and Borrower of the Last resort!

 India's FM is an unenviable position. Given the penchant for two steps forward and one step backward in all economic decisions, FM is in the eye of the storm unendingly ever since the pandemic struck India. In fact, even before that, India's GDP was sliding YOY from 2016-17 onwards. It hit a high of 8.26% in 16-17 and hit the lowest so far in Fiscal 19-20 at 4.2%.

GST collections have also ebbed along with the GDP since even Nominal GDP has grown only by 7.2% in Fy 19-20.It was growing at 11.76% in Fiscal 16-17. So, this skidding of the nominal growth rate coupled with a reduction in GST rates in 2018 led to a shortfall in GST collections even though the tax base widened. The good thing about the One Nation, One tax has been the acceptance of this Taxation in lieu of VAT at the individual state level and Excise duty at the Central level. The consensus behind GST has been bought by Arun Jaitley with the commitment for providing Central funds at the growth rate of 14% YOY to the individual States, by levying Compensatory cess on luxury and sin goods. However, the Central Govt is caught on the wrong foot this year due to the pandemic. The tax collections are abysmally low and this has forced the Central Govt. to consider reneging on its promise of providing compensatory funds to the states.

In the recent 41st GST Council meeting, FM has been compelled to use the insurance phrase of Act of God i.e force majeure(or Hand of China?!), to describe the extraordinary situation due to the Covid pandemic. Due to this compulsion, the Central Govt has presented two options to the States to consider and give their replies in a week's time. Under Option 1 States may borrow Rs.97K cr at a special interest rate and the principal and the interest will be later on paid out of Compensatory cess on Cars, Soft drinks, tobacco, pan masala, and coal. Under Option 2 States can borrow up to Rs.2.35lac cr and States will have to pay interest at the market rates.Only the principal will be paid out of Compensatory Cess later and the interest will have to be provided in the States' Budgets. In this GOI has made a fine distinction between GST implementation loss and Covid induced tax revenue loss which is also hair-splitting and needlessly academic, if not contentious.

Now the overall emerging scenario is one of confrontation between the Centre and the States. All economists are now supporting the States saying that since it is the commitment of the Central Govt. it has to find the resources for funding this GST collection shortfall. Of course, they are of the view that the Central Govt can source this fund at a much cheaper cost than what the States could bargain for.This is an important point. However Finance Secretary has gone on record saying that if the Centre resorts to this borrowings, overall bond yields may go northwards, which will raise the cost of borrowings for both the Public sector and Private Sector. As a consequence, the sovereign rating of the country may be adversely impacted which will be detrimental to the interests of all sectors of the economy. But the moot point is this can happen even if States borrow for this purpose.

In the meantime some of the opposition ruled states are considering approaching SC for a direction to the Central Govt, saying that the Centre is trying to hide behind AG's legal opinions, shirking its responsibility in honoring the revenue commitment in letter and spirit. But such an outcome may not augur well for federal relationships and for the future of cooperative federalism which is touted as the big success point behind GST introduction.

However, in all this surcharged situation over who should shoulder the borrowing burden, the missing point is how well or badly States are containing their deficits in the last few years despite being given higher level of funds without much of efforts from their side. Any additional funds given without caveats are being frittered away by them in giving freebies, free EB and in unplanned revenue expenditure. So who is going to discipline them and rein in their penchant for spending without answering for outcomes? Even in May 20, when Centre gave permission for Additional borrowings through the WMA window, many states incl. Tamilnadu objected to the thinnest of the sticks like DBT transfer of EB subsidy to BPL families, that came with the carrot. States only want the carrot as their right without any strings being attached.

That said, Central Govt. must seize this opportunity to bring to light the importance of fiscal discipline at the State level by finally agreeing to resort to the borrowings on their behalf.

If you consider the Center and the State as the right and the left hands of the same person, sometimes when your right hand is full of weight to be lifted, the left hand also should chip in to bear the weight in order to balance it. Left cannot accuse the right of transferring some of the weight to it!!