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Showing posts from April, 2025

State of the Indian Economy: Navigating Global Uncertainties

 The global economic landscape is rapidly evolving, with trade policy uncertainty emerging as the key driver of the near-term outlook. Recent US tariff announcements have stoked fears of a global trade war, with countries still working out their appropriate responses in this uncertain environment. Despite these external headwinds, the Indian economy has exhibited marked resilience. Although the weakening global economic outlook could impact overall growth through weaker external demand, India's domestic growth engines - consumption and investment - are relatively less susceptible to external pressures. Prospects for the farm sector have been boosted by the forecast of an above normal southwest monsoon for 2025, which could augment farm incomes and keep food prices under check. Headline inflation moderated to a 67-month low of 3.3% in March, mainly due to moderation in food prices. Global Economic Outlook: Trade Tensions and Market Volatility The global economic landscape is facing ...

GST and Compensation cess during FY24-25.

  In FY25, India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections showed robust growth, with   gross collections reaching ₹22.08 lakh crore (a 9.4% increase) and net collections (after refunds) at ₹19.56 lakh crore (an 8.6% increase) .   Here's a more detailed breakdown:       Gross GST Collections: For FY25, the total gross GST collections reached ₹22.08 lakh crore, indicating a 9.4% year-on-year (YoY) increase.   Net GST Collections: After accounting for refunds, the net GST collections for FY25 stood at ₹19.56 lakh crore, representing an 8.6% increase from the previous financial year.   March 2025 Collections: In March 2025, gross GST collections rose 9.9% YoY to ₹1.96 lakh crore,  Refunds: GST refunds of ₹19,615 crore were given in March, and ₹2.52 trillion were given in the just-ended financial year.   Economic Activity: The continued rise in GST collections is seen as a positive sign of rising economic activity, better tax compliance, an...

US Tariffs -path forward for India with BTA and Opportunities available

  Reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. are expected to lead to bilateral negotiations and a significant shift in supply chain models over the coming years. The global economy has long operated under a model of globalization, where production is based on cost efficiency and goods are sold where there is demand. However, the recent tariff changes are prompting a re-evaluation of this integrated supply chain system. It is acknowledged that altering this established model will not be quick or easy due to challenges such as talent management, sourcing, and the availability of raw materials. As a result, the underlying infrastructure of global supply chains will need time to adapt. It is unlikely that tariffs will revert to zero, as changes once implemented often remain in some form, meaning future trade relations may see tariffs settle at varied levels across different countries. Despite these challenges, there is optimism regarding India’s economic position, noting that there will co...

Passenger vehicles sales trend is encouraging for the Economy

  The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) released its vehicle retail data for March 2025 and the full fiscal year 2024-25 (FY 24-25), reflecting the performance of the Indian automobile retail sector. Based on available insights, overall vehicle retail sales in FY 24-25 showed a growth of 6.5% compared to FY 23-24, with total sales reaching 26 million units, up from 24.5 million units the previous year. This growth was driven by a 5% increase in passenger vehicle sales, an 8% rise in two-wheeler sales, and a 5% uptick in commercial vehicle sales, though March 2025 itself saw a slight year-on-year decline of 0.7% due to early-month weakness offset by festive demand later. 10 year Trend showing correlation between India's Steel Production and India's Passenger vehicles sale: Courtesy: Trading Economics,March 2025 For March 2025 specifically, sales were influenced by a mix of factors. The month started slowly due to the Kharmas period, but a strong recovery occur...