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Showing posts from August, 2020

Compensation to States and Borrower of the Last resort!

 India's FM is an unenviable position. Given the penchant for two steps forward and one step backward in all economic decisions, FM is in the eye of the storm unendingly ever since the pandemic struck India. In fact, even before that, India's GDP was sliding YOY from 2016-17 onwards. It hit a high of 8.26% in 16-17 and hit the lowest so far in Fiscal 19-20 at 4.2%. GST collections have also ebbed along with the GDP since even Nominal GDP has grown only by 7.2% in Fy 19-20.It was growing at 11.76% in Fiscal 16-17. So, this skidding of the nominal growth rate coupled with a reduction in GST rates in 2018 led to a shortfall in GST collections even though the tax base widened. The good thing about the One Nation, One tax has been the acceptance of this Taxation in lieu of VAT at the individual state level and Excise duty at the Central level. The consensus behind GST has been bought by Arun Jaitley with the commitment for providing Central funds at the growth rate of 14% YOY to the...

Lockdowns ,Unlocks and White elephants!

  We have had four lockdowns and unlocks across the country.To start with it was Complete lockdown, which struck like a bolt from the blue starting from March 24th till May 31st 2020. Many prominent opposition leaders severely criticized the Govt for this lockdown accusing Modi of dictatorship tendency throwing the hungry, poverty-stricken, migrants on the streets and pavements uncared for. The second lockdown little relaxed was in June as experimentation and once the pandemic started spreading wildly, Govt. was again back to stricter lockdowns. But by the end of june, Central Govt realized that the question of livelihood was becoming important and advised staggered unlocks. But many states ruled by opposition leaders taking a holier than Centre attitude continued with strict lockdowns introducing epasses even for intrastate movements, imposing restrictions like total lockdowns during weekends making life difficult for the common man. There was a tough competition between states as...

Tax, STT and Windfall tax.

The only thing certain about Tax is, it is always taxing.  India abolished LTCG(Long Term Capital Gains) tax some years back while STT(Securities Transaction Tax) was introduced. After few years Arun Jaitley,the then FM at the Central Govt, thought it fit to reintroduce LTCG Tax from Fy 18-19, with an exemption if STT had been paid on the transaction. Now many Economists have recommended for abolition of LTCG tax showing the distortion it brings in transactions involving Digital Gold, unlisted shares and the black money generation it encourages in all and sundry especially in Real estate transactions. The arguments against LTCG Tax are strong and valid. The vagueness it brings in matters of valuation brings lot of confusion and uncertainty giving the incentive to hide part of the consideration received. What demo wanted to flush out, LTCG Tax has encouraged inadvertently. It has sent wrong signals across the economy. What is the remedy then. One simple alternative is to bring Trans...

Open society and its friends!

 Karl Popper wrote in his book "Open society and its enemies"  that Paradox of Tolerance leads to more intolerance. He explained that in order to maintain a tolerant society,the society itself must be intolerant of the intolerant. He openly borrows his idea from Plato's concept of Benevolent despotism or benevolent dictatorship. Indians have understood this contradiction in governance and according to the best of statecrafts defined by them State Governance has four ways of taking action : Sama,Dhana , Bheda and Dhanda. When it should actively encourage dharmic ways of living, it should seek out and identify those who are bent upon disturbing this peaceful coexistence. It may be its own citizens or enemies from outside. For dealing with them it should employ the above four ways and it can move from one to another subtly, discreetly or sometimes directly. Dhanda is always the last resort and even for criminal acts and for offenders, punishment is a must. This is intoleranc...

Inflation, Monetary policy and India

 The minutes of the recent meeting of Monetary Policy Committee  of RBi which were released this week, contain some interesting mentions. One of the news columns said that RBI minutes mention 'uncertainty' 12 times, 'growth' 43 times and 'inflation' 147 times It has expressed concern over inflation and it seems to be valid as CPI has remained above 6% which is more than the tolerance limit of RBI. Alongside, India is experiencing severe GDP growth pangs as its IIP has remained in the negative territory in the first quarter and in July also. Services sector is in a deeper mess except of course ITES, SAAS etc. which have been affected to a lesser extent. It looks like only Agri sector has not been impacted adversely so far ,as the progress of monsoon has been satisfactory and the spatial dispersion also fairly good. The RBI Deputy Governor Mr.Michael Patra had said : "If inflation persists above the upper tolerance band for one more quarter, monetary policy w...

Plato's Cave theory and Advaita!

 Plato in his magnum opus Republic has given an Allegory of the Cave which is widely called Cave Theory to emphasise on the lack of education on our nature which is similar to the prisoners inside the cave .Prisoners inside the cave see only images of reflection which are only shadows of the reality in the dim light.Plato being the disciple of Socrates has written this as a dialogue between his brother and Socrates. The prisoners free themselves from the bonded chains in the caves and come out and see that what they have experienced is not reality but reality outside the cave exists. This allegory shows that the human senses when chained to the cave do not allow humans to think beyond the cave images. In this allegory Plato keeps mathematics, geometry and deductive logic at the third and highest level of education. There is a similarity of this to Indian philosophy of Advaita, in which in simple terms it is said that what we experience is not the reality and it is more like an illu...

TReDS AND GST PORTAL

GST portal has come a long way from a fledgling,fumbling and faltering days to its better days.However it has go a long way to evolve into a mature and more user-friendly phase. Now Central Govt is introducing e Invoicing with unique Invoice Reference Number (IRN) for traceability and matching concept introduction. This IRN will be given by Govt and this is to identify whether it is a valid e Invoice . This numbering system will be similar to cheque MICR no. for the purpose of verifying the genuineness and also for the use in matching it for clearing mechanism. This IRN will also serve similar purposes.More than bigger companies this system will help MSMEs in the longer run. F or MSME bill discounting some of the banks like Axis Bank have introduced a digital platform called TREds so that MSMEs can access cheaper bank finance against their supply invoices. Ministry of Corporate Affairs have also made it mandatory for all Corporates with a turnover of Rs.500 cr and above to register und...

US, India and Kamala!

 Independence day in India is always a grand event as it happens on August 15th of the year. A year has 365 days and if you have a cut off at Aug 15th ,it is 227 days into the year starting from Jan 1st..This is approx 1.66:1 of the year. That is the Golden Ratio which is supposed to be a mystic proportion of anything including the picture of Mona Lisa ,and that is considered to have made it magically beautiful. That apart, Indian Independence day this year was preceded by the announcement of Kamala Harris as the running mate of the US democratic presidential candidate Biden. Kamala Harris' mother was of Indian origin from Chennai. She carries the name Kamala which is a traditional Sanskrit name for Lotus flower. Indian ruling party BJP has Lotus symbol as its primary identity. The moot point is , the common least denominator between the ruling party of india and US politician Kamala ,is the Lotus . In many ways, Lotus i.e Kamal is very dear to india and it is the official flower o...

Import Trade restrictions and Make in India-Atmanirbhar!

 Import Trade wall or barriers are not new to India. The country had very steep walls in terms of Tariffs, licensing ,quotas etc. all in the name of safeguarding the domestic industry. When the country gained independence, many of the industries were either nascent or anemic and in order to restore their health, Central Govt had no option but to erect some import restrictions so that local industries in the economy are nurtured. This grooming of domestic industry with level playing field took a new turn in the late 1960s and 1970s with widespread nationalisation of private enterprises, ushering in an era of erratic socialism all in the name of protecting the citizens from private profiteering. This concept led to erecting walls within the country between the commanding heights of Govt. undertakings and the Private enterprises. The private sector was neglected and was left to fend for itself and scaling up an enterprise became a uphill challenge for private sector. Inorder to protec...

Covid, Cricket and Character!

 Cricket has weathered many a winter and smothered many a vagary as a gentleman's game. Cricket was played during Spanish flu times also and UK's Wisden has not recorded any disruption in the progress of the cricket season in 1918 and 1919. But Cricket was severely restricted during World war 1 when all the major cricket playing nations were involved in the war.Cricket was also played less during World War II since England was involved in the war in full measure. But during all these periods of distress, Cricket was played in India with the least disruptions. In fact, Wisden which has recorded death of English cricketers during World War 1 and 2 in all cricket playing nations , has not even mentioned one indian cricketer dying during Spanish flu days.This has to be seen in the light of total death toll of 17 million who died in india during Spanish flu years. So even in 1918 and during World wars everybody around the world believed that India could somehow manage and survive hu...

RBI monetary policy and the state of the Indian economy

 RBI's recent Monetary Policy announcement after MPC considered the latest economic factors, CPI etc , came out with no repo rate cut. Primarily because CPI is elevated and at an uncomfortable level as far as RBI is concerned.since the mandated and stated objective of RBI is now inflation control, RBI has decided to hold the rate this time despite the economic slowdown calling for a steep rate cut.RBI also mentioned that this year would see real GDP contraction after more than four decades, but still decided to save the powder for a more rainy day or for a day when the bang will be worth its buck. India is facing rising prices also esp. food prices, fuel prices and therefore is experiencing a cost push inflation. There is a school of economists who say the inflation is fueled by easy liquidity floating in the economy and the stock exchange boom , gold price rise all indicate to easy money into areas where some quick money can be made.Even RBI is predicting a rise in inflation level...

Minimalism-இருந்தும் ,இல்லாமல் இரு!

 Minimalism is an old concept but is gaining ground these days when Covid 19 pandemic is trying to devour the entire world. Minimalism is all about living with less. This is not a fad but a way of life of renunciation and deep withdrawal from worldly pleasures, which has a profound effect on the psychology of humans. In India, many of our Saints and philosophers have talked about leading life of penance ,sacrifice and total detachment. Even wealthy persons of yester years led a life like that of a Trustees of their wealth. Gandhiji also said this in his seven sins of life: "Wealth without work; Pleasure without Conscience;Science without humanity;Knowledge without character; Politics without principle; Commerce without Morality; Worship without sacrifice" It is said that Gandhiji also laid lot of stress on wealthy businessmen and persons to remember that they are Trustees not owners of their wealth which provide them an opportunity to serve the people at large and for social ...

Orwell and Covid vaccine

  "All animal are equal, but some animals are more equal than others," wrote George Orwell in his allegorical novel Animal Farm. the stody in short conveys the meaning that the absolute power corrupts absolutely. His novel 1984 which is a classic dystopian novel, also wrote about Thought Police to persecute individuality and independent thinking . This novel and Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World" rank as two of the best dystopian novels of twentieth century. Huxley's novel describes a world where people are born and raised  through engineered artificial wombs and childhood indoctrination into predetermined classes or castes based on intelligence and labour. In all these novels, a world covered by intelligence which gives it an order and discipline predetermined by its rulers, is a dire prediction. Coming to Covid 19 driven world of today, our ways and methods are directed by rulers assisted by doctors, epidemiologists and virologists , and we are not at liber...

Indian Acts, amendments and russian roulette!

  Whenever any change in the IT Act is contemplated it should be put through only one filter which is "simplification" of the tax. Revenue considerations, whether an increase or decrease, not to enter as a filter for any piecemeal or Adhoc changes during the course of the year.  Simplification, reduction of tax, widening of tax base may be used as multiple filters for once a year changes in the Budget. Many times an amendment is done in the name of maximizing tax revenues and plugging loopholes. This is a pure travesty of truth. Instead, Govt should move towards simplification and ease of compliance. This obsession with revenue maximization is a colonial hangover. Very often IRS officers and CBDT also complain about CAG Damocles sword over their heads if they don't plug loopholes. Indirectly such a plethora of amendments and tinkering goads loophole industry to become more innovative.CAs, lawyers enjoy and thrive on this.More the loopholes and more the plugging.More they ...

Ram temple and the Indian ethos

Ram temple has been the dream of millions of Indians who are Hindus, Sikhs,Buddhists, Jains and even some Muslims if not Christians,Jews etc. Why I said some Muslims, is because some of them regard and pay respect to Lord Ram as one of their ancestors. I learnt that some Muslim women of Varanasi have been performing "Shri Ram Aarti" for the past 14 years every day and sing Ram dhun. Maryada Purushottam Ram has a special place in the ethos, culture, literature,traditions and whatnot of this country from Himalayas to Kanyakumari.He is a symbol of love and compassion and is celebrated that way in all Asian countries of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia and Phillipines ,as I know of. Even Thailand's Royal Kings use the name of Ram in their titles. Ram has been a symbol of Unity and Gandhiji in modern days extensively used Ram for uniting the people of India under the banner of Purna Swaraj for Bharat. Gandhi in his Autobiography says that Ramayana and ...

VUCA 2.0 and Board evaluation of Strategy.

VUCA 1.0 talked about Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity in the countries around the world and how this VUCA gets multiplied over the years with a purposeful push towards chaos. The laws of thermodynamics are called into play to describe what was chaos yesterday which has moved into the chaos of today and which will move into the chaos of tomorrow, with entropy increase. But to tackle VUCA 1.0 , I prescribed the following:   In a VUCA WORLD     - V olatile environment requires V ision to look beyond the immediate and prioritise     - U ncertainty   needs calm U nderstanding of the situation to be purpose driven      - C omplexity   demands C apability of mind to look at locks & keys      - A mbiguity   calls   for   A gility in the workplace to innovate, grow and excel. In VUCA 2.0 Bill George in his HBS article gives out a solution model instead o...

EIA 2020 draft is good and what should we be careful about?

What do we know about EIA draft 2020? But even before we read it, we want to register our opposition to the draft. Does this attitude not reek of cynicism. Former UPA minister Mr.jairam Ramesh shot out a letter to Minister for Environment in Central govt,Mr.Prakash Javadekar saying that draft EIA allows post facto approvals going against the principle of assessment before projects are put up. There are some fundamental flaws in the assumptions behind the accusations against the draft. 1)Under the current EIA everything is hunky dory and the revised draft now is going to spell doom to the environment. For that, they are side by side quoting that LG Polymers gas leak disaster saying that this project has not obtained EIA clearances for the project still. These people, conveniently forgetting that this project has been put up as per current guidelines and not under the draft now presented, quote LG Polymer as an example of a violation of Environment Act. If the project had come up ...