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Showing posts with the label fallacy

Law of Averages,Regression to the Mean and the Walk down the Dalal Street!

 Sir Francis Galton, a British polymath, did pioneering work on Regression or Reversion to the Mean in Statistical Research in the late 19th Century. According to his analysis of human characteristics, he applied statistical methods to the study of human differences and inheritance of intelligence and pioneered the work on Eugenics. He also contributed to the field of psychology by founding psychometrics with personality mapping. He was a versatile genius and being the half-cousin to Charles Darwin, his works in many ways drew sufficient inspiration from Darwin's studies. But his most outstanding contribution is Regression to the Mean in Statistical analysis. He is also considered to have developed a central limit theorem showing that with sufficient sample size the binomial distribution approximates a Normal Distribution and the practical demonstration of it is called Galton Board or Quincunx or Bean machine Regression to the Mean is in simple terms that if there is volatility obs...