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Will GST revenue buoyancy continue for the rest of the Fiscal year 2024?

  The GST collections trend in India upto June 2023 in FY23-24: April 2023:  Rs. 1,87,035 crore (highest ever) May 2023:  Rs. 1,57,079 crore June 2023:  Rs. 1,61,497 crore The average monthly gross GST collection for the first half of FY23-24 is Rs. 1,69,000 crore. This is 12% higher than the average monthly collection for the same period in FY22-23. The GST collections have been consistently growing in the current financial year. This is due to a number of factors, including the strong growth of the Indian economy, the increasing compliance with the GST law, and the government's efforts to boost digitization and transparency in the tax system. The average monthly gross GST collection for the first quarter of the FY 2021-22, FY 22-23 & FY 23-24 are Rs. 1.10 lakh crore, Rs. 1.51 lakh crore and Rs. 1.69 lakh crore respectively, the finance ministry said. The gross revenue has crossed the 1.6 lakh crore mark for the fourth time since the inception of GST in the coun...

Compensation to States and Borrower of the Last resort!

 India's FM is an unenviable position. Given the penchant for two steps forward and one step backward in all economic decisions, FM is in the eye of the storm unendingly ever since the pandemic struck India. In fact, even before that, India's GDP was sliding YOY from 2016-17 onwards. It hit a high of 8.26% in 16-17 and hit the lowest so far in Fiscal 19-20 at 4.2%. GST collections have also ebbed along with the GDP since even Nominal GDP has grown only by 7.2% in Fy 19-20.It was growing at 11.76% in Fiscal 16-17. So, this skidding of the nominal growth rate coupled with a reduction in GST rates in 2018 led to a shortfall in GST collections even though the tax base widened. The good thing about the One Nation, One tax has been the acceptance of this Taxation in lieu of VAT at the individual state level and Excise duty at the Central level. The consensus behind GST has been bought by Arun Jaitley with the commitment for providing Central funds at the growth rate of 14% YOY to the...

TReDS AND GST PORTAL

GST portal has come a long way from a fledgling,fumbling and faltering days to its better days.However it has go a long way to evolve into a mature and more user-friendly phase. Now Central Govt is introducing e Invoicing with unique Invoice Reference Number (IRN) for traceability and matching concept introduction. This IRN will be given by Govt and this is to identify whether it is a valid e Invoice . This numbering system will be similar to cheque MICR no. for the purpose of verifying the genuineness and also for the use in matching it for clearing mechanism. This IRN will also serve similar purposes.More than bigger companies this system will help MSMEs in the longer run. F or MSME bill discounting some of the banks like Axis Bank have introduced a digital platform called TREds so that MSMEs can access cheaper bank finance against their supply invoices. Ministry of Corporate Affairs have also made it mandatory for all Corporates with a turnover of Rs.500 cr and above to register und...

Indian Acts, amendments and russian roulette!

  Whenever any change in the IT Act is contemplated it should be put through only one filter which is "simplification" of the tax. Revenue considerations, whether an increase or decrease, not to enter as a filter for any piecemeal or Adhoc changes during the course of the year.  Simplification, reduction of tax, widening of tax base may be used as multiple filters for once a year changes in the Budget. Many times an amendment is done in the name of maximizing tax revenues and plugging loopholes. This is a pure travesty of truth. Instead, Govt should move towards simplification and ease of compliance. This obsession with revenue maximization is a colonial hangover. Very often IRS officers and CBDT also complain about CAG Damocles sword over their heads if they don't plug loopholes. Indirectly such a plethora of amendments and tinkering goads loophole industry to become more innovative.CAs, lawyers enjoy and thrive on this.More the loopholes and more the plugging.More they ...

Immediate prescription for demand stimulus!

Sri. Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor to Central Govt,yesterday, has gone on record saying that further demand stimulus measures will be announced after vaccine becomes available. Why should we link stimulus to vaccine availability is not clear. What kind of vaccine he is expecting and if the vaccine falls short of his expectations whether he would not allow roll out of stimulus? I t may become too late to wait till then.Why because, the common man has started saving his meagre earnings due to his fear about his future earnings and not due to Covid pandemic per se.In order to allay his fear about his employment and future earnings, Govt must sacrifice some near term revenue and announce some economic incentives  for kick starting the economy.What better place to start than with Indirect Tax cuts. Auto sector is the biggest in manufacturing in terms of GDP and reducing GST on it from 28% and converge it with Revenue Neutral Rate(RNR) of 18% will give a huge ...

RBI consumer confidence survey of May 2020 and getting the common man's dreams back.

RBI consumer confidence survey was done in May 2020, which came out a few days back paints a dark picture of consumer confidence. It has hit rock bottom so far. link . Whether it will hit another bottom is a moot point. According to RBI Consumer confidence collapsed in May with the Current Situation Index (CSI) touching a historic low of 63.7 dipping from 85.6 in March 20. One year ahead Future Expectations Index entered the zone of pessimism at 97.9 for the first time after Modi govt. took charge, falling from 115.2 just two months ago. These are all negative news, but as expected. However these are lag news and therefore markets looking for lead indicators ignored this. We all now know that Covid 19 has wreaked havoc on our economic health more than what it could do to people health. But there are several silver linings like not many people do not expect price levels to go up. If we discount the "recency bias" in their opinions and perceptions,I still find 14.4 % peo...