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Law of Averages,Regression to the Mean and the Walk down the Dalal Street!

 Sir Francis Galton, a British polymath, did pioneering work on Regression or Reversion to the Mean in Statistical Research in the late 19th Century. According to his analysis of human characteristics, he applied statistical methods to the study of human differences and inheritance of intelligence and pioneered the work on Eugenics. He also contributed to the field of psychology by founding psychometrics with personality mapping. He was a versatile genius and being the half-cousin to Charles Darwin, his works in many ways drew sufficient inspiration from Darwin's studies. But his most outstanding contribution is Regression to the Mean in Statistical analysis. He is also considered to have developed a central limit theorem showing that with sufficient sample size the binomial distribution approximates a Normal Distribution and the practical demonstration of it is called Galton Board or Quincunx or Bean machine Regression to the Mean is in simple terms that if there is volatility obs...

RBI monetary policy and the state of the Indian economy

 RBI's recent Monetary Policy announcement after MPC considered the latest economic factors, CPI etc , came out with no repo rate cut. Primarily because CPI is elevated and at an uncomfortable level as far as RBI is concerned.since the mandated and stated objective of RBI is now inflation control, RBI has decided to hold the rate this time despite the economic slowdown calling for a steep rate cut.RBI also mentioned that this year would see real GDP contraction after more than four decades, but still decided to save the powder for a more rainy day or for a day when the bang will be worth its buck. India is facing rising prices also esp. food prices, fuel prices and therefore is experiencing a cost push inflation. There is a school of economists who say the inflation is fueled by easy liquidity floating in the economy and the stock exchange boom , gold price rise all indicate to easy money into areas where some quick money can be made.Even RBI is predicting a rise in inflation level...