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Law of Averages,Regression to the Mean and the Walk down the Dalal Street!

 Sir Francis Galton, a British polymath, did pioneering work on Regression or Reversion to the Mean in Statistical Research in the late 19th Century. According to his analysis of human characteristics, he applied statistical methods to the study of human differences and inheritance of intelligence and pioneered the work on Eugenics. He also contributed to the field of psychology by founding psychometrics with personality mapping. He was a versatile genius and being the half-cousin to Charles Darwin, his works in many ways drew sufficient inspiration from Darwin's studies. But his most outstanding contribution is Regression to the Mean in Statistical analysis. He is also considered to have developed a central limit theorem showing that with sufficient sample size the binomial distribution approximates a Normal Distribution and the practical demonstration of it is called Galton Board or Quincunx or Bean machine Regression to the Mean is in simple terms that if there is volatility obs...

VUCA 2.0 and Board evaluation of Strategy.

VUCA 1.0 talked about Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity in the countries around the world and how this VUCA gets multiplied over the years with a purposeful push towards chaos. The laws of thermodynamics are called into play to describe what was chaos yesterday which has moved into the chaos of today and which will move into the chaos of tomorrow, with entropy increase. But to tackle VUCA 1.0 , I prescribed the following:   In a VUCA WORLD     - V olatile environment requires V ision to look beyond the immediate and prioritise     - U ncertainty   needs calm U nderstanding of the situation to be purpose driven      - C omplexity   demands C apability of mind to look at locks & keys      - A mbiguity   calls   for   A gility in the workplace to innovate, grow and excel. In VUCA 2.0 Bill George in his HBS article gives out a solution model instead o...

Board diversity and "what if " strategy

The other day somebody told me that Abraham Lincoln after winning the elections , formed his first cabinet with three of the people who were his rivals for Republican nomination. Lincoln had a logic- Cabinet should represent diverse views and perspectives and also fiercely independent. Should a Corporate Board reflect such diversity and independence? Every director in the Board brings with him or her wisdom for running the business and board diversity ensures that several new windows are opened and explored, new doors are found and hidden doors are unhinged. One of the tasks for Boards is to form Committees like Audit Committee,NRC, Independent Directors' Committee etc. Now with rapid  and disrupting changes happening around you,the importance of forming Risk Management Committee, Technology Adaptation Committee, Business Strategy Committee etc. has gained quite a bit of traction. Invariably for effective functioning of these Committees, Boards must have requisite reservoir ...