Why crowds are almost always wrong: the data behind herd mentality and market cycles The crowd is a terrible investor. DALBAR data, SEBI studies, and a century of market cycles show why - and what it means for how we think. July 11, 2026 · 12 min read A crowd of grey silhouettes all moving in one direction, with a single teal figure standing still facing away - illustrating the lone dissenter against herd behaviour TL;DR The crowd is a poor investor - and we have 30 years of data to prove it. DALBAR's 2024 study shows the average equity investor trailed the S&P 500 by 848 basis points last year. SEBI's 2024 study shows 93% of Indian F&O traders lost money between FY22 and FY24. This isn't incompetence - it's the predictable result of how human psychology functions under social pressure. Understanding why crowds are systematically wrong is more useful than any specific investment thesis. The most dangerous consensus in a room is the one nobody questions...
The Indian Rupee recently crossed the 97 mark against the US Dollar, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down. If you've been tracking exchange rates or planning a trip abroad, you've probably felt the pinch. Everything from imported electronics to cooking oil is getting more expensive. And your money just doesn't stretch as far as it used to. This isn't a one-day blip. The rupee has been on a steady downward slide for months, and the reasons go deeper than most headlines suggest. It's a mix of what's happening inside India's economy and what's happening across the globe. Trade deficits, foreign investors pulling out money, rising oil prices, the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high — all of these are pulling the rupee in the wrong direction at the same time. In this post, we'll break down the key domestic pressures weighing on the rupee and the global forces making the US Dollar stronger. We'll also look at what the Reserve Bank ...