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Why crowds are almost always wrong: the data behind herd mentality and market cycles The crowd is a terrible investor. DALBAR data, SEBI studies, and a century of market cycles show why - and what it means for how we think. July 11, 2026 · 12 min read A crowd of grey silhouettes all moving in one direction, with a single teal figure standing still facing away - illustrating the lone dissenter against herd behaviour TL;DR The crowd is a poor investor - and we have 30 years of data to prove it. DALBAR's 2024 study shows the average equity investor trailed the S&P 500 by 848 basis points last year. SEBI's 2024 study shows 93% of Indian F&O traders lost money between FY22 and FY24. This isn't incompetence - it's the predictable result of how human psychology functions under social pressure. Understanding why crowds are systematically wrong is more useful than any specific investment thesis. The most dangerous consensus in a room is the one nobody questions...

  The Indian Rupee recently crossed the 97 mark against the US Dollar, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down. If you've been tracking exchange rates or planning a trip abroad, you've probably felt the pinch. Everything from imported electronics to cooking oil is getting more expensive. And your money just doesn't stretch as far as it used to. This isn't a one-day blip. The rupee has been on a steady downward slide for months, and the reasons go deeper than most headlines suggest. It's a mix of what's happening inside India's economy and what's happening across the globe. Trade deficits, foreign investors pulling out money, rising oil prices, the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high — all of these are pulling the rupee in the wrong direction at the same time. In this post, we'll break down the key domestic pressures weighing on the rupee and the global forces making the US Dollar stronger. We'll also look at what the Reserve Bank ...

  Further to my earlier Suggestions reg. immediate Revenue Augmentation, I am submitting a medium term plan. Out of this, Inflation-indexing of Property Tax, Water &Drainage Tax , use of GIS mapping for Property Tax assessments, Stamp duty reduction( like Maharashtra) etc. can be done on Priority basis.  1. Tax Revenue Augmentation (SOTR Reforms) Tax revenue constitutes roughly 75% of Tamil Nadu's total revenue receipts. Augmentation here relies less on raising tax rates (which can hurt industrial competitiveness) and more on widening the base, curbing leakages, and updating lagging valuations . State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) Data-Driven Enforcement and Audit: Utilizing advanced data analytics, AI, and end-to-end e-invoicing verification to identify data mismatches between GSTR-1, GSTR-3B, and e-way bills. This targets systematic input tax credit (ITC) fraud, which has historically caused severe leakages. Widening the Service Tax Net: Given that the service sector ...

  Suggested “Financial Bazooka” for the new TN CM to reduce Revenue Deficit Based on the 2026-27 interim budget projections and industry benchmarks for fiscal reforms, the streamlining of these sectors could provide a significant boost to the state treasury. However, while these measures can drastically reduce the revenue deficit, they are unlikely to wipe it out in a single fiscal year due to the sheer scale of the state's committed expenditures. Here is a breakdown of the expected impact: 1. Estimated Annual Revenue Gains Based on current fiscal data and the "leakage" typically associated with non-transparent systems, here is the projected additional annual revenue: Reform Area Estimated Additional Revenue (Annual) Rationale Mining Auctions ₹1,500 – ₹2,000 Crore Moving from a fixed-price/royalty model to competitive e-auctions (especially for sand and blue metal) historical...