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Inflation, Monetary policy and India

 The minutes of the recent meeting of Monetary Policy Committee  of RBi which were released this week, contain some interesting mentions. One of the news columns said that RBI minutes mention 'uncertainty' 12 times, 'growth' 43 times and 'inflation' 147 times It has expressed concern over inflation and it seems to be valid as CPI has remained above 6% which is more than the tolerance limit of RBI. Alongside, India is experiencing severe GDP growth pangs as its IIP has remained in the negative territory in the first quarter and in July also. Services sector is in a deeper mess except of course ITES, SAAS etc. which have been affected to a lesser extent. It looks like only Agri sector has not been impacted adversely so far ,as the progress of monsoon has been satisfactory and the spatial dispersion also fairly good. The RBI Deputy Governor Mr.Michael Patra had said : "If inflation persists above the upper tolerance band for one more quarter, monetary policy w...

RBI monetary policy and the state of the Indian economy

 RBI's recent Monetary Policy announcement after MPC considered the latest economic factors, CPI etc , came out with no repo rate cut. Primarily because CPI is elevated and at an uncomfortable level as far as RBI is concerned.since the mandated and stated objective of RBI is now inflation control, RBI has decided to hold the rate this time despite the economic slowdown calling for a steep rate cut.RBI also mentioned that this year would see real GDP contraction after more than four decades, but still decided to save the powder for a more rainy day or for a day when the bang will be worth its buck. India is facing rising prices also esp. food prices, fuel prices and therefore is experiencing a cost push inflation. There is a school of economists who say the inflation is fueled by easy liquidity floating in the economy and the stock exchange boom , gold price rise all indicate to easy money into areas where some quick money can be made.Even RBI is predicting a rise in inflation level...

Reforms in Power sector.

Central Govt announced Rs.90K cr rescue package for power gencos through PFC and REC.But PRAAPTI ( Payment Ratification And Analysis in Power procurement for bringing Transparency in Invoicing of generators) website shows that the total overdue amount to be paid to Gencos stood at Rs.113.8K cr at the end of May 2020 continuously going up for the last 18 to 24 months. The total outstandings were Rs.125.6K cr. link . Apart from this, there is renewable energy generation pending to be adjusted against captive consumption of factories which is not yet visible.This may be another iceberg submerged. After clearing Rs.90K cr.as per GOI plan  stated above, how the state discoms are going to manage their future liabilities. With a negative gap between Average Cost of Supply(ACS) and Average Revenue Realised at Re.0.41 per unit on an All India basis, it is a losing game. AT & C loss is also still very high at 18.72% link .UDAY (Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana) commitments lie in tatt...