Indian Economic Momentum is likely to remain on track next 3 to 6 months!

The dashboard on Indian Economic Momentum presents key indicators that highlight the current economic landscape based on Lead and Lag indicators:

- **Consumer Price Index (CPI)**: There has been a recent uptick to 3.4% in March 2026.

- **Trade Data**: The trade deficit has narrowed to $21 billion in March, although projections indicate a potential widening due to oil volatility.

- **GST Collections**: A significant milestone has been reached with gross revenue of ₹2.0 lakh crore.

- **PMI (Manufacturing & Services)**: Recent moderation has been observed, influenced by Middle East geopolitics and the ongoing repercussions of the Ukraine war on Russian oil.

- **IIP & Core Industry**: Trends in industrial production growth are being tracked.

These indicators collectively provide a comprehensive view of the economic momentum in India.

India Macro Outlook for the next 6 weeks -Scenario Analysis

 The collapse of the Islamabad talks on April 12, 2026, has significantly escalated regional tensions.With the U.S. now moving to remove blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran signaling a refusal to back down on nuclear and territorial demands, the next 2 to 6 weeks are critical.
Based on current geopolitical shifts and market analysis, here are the likely scenarios: