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  India's goods trade deficit shrank to USD 20.58 billion in November 2023 from USD 22.1 billion in the same month the previous year, less than the USD 23.6 billion difference that the market had predicted.This number is significantly less than Oct 23 Trade deficit of US$31.46 billion which was the highest in the last ten quarters   Exports decreased by 2.9% to USD 33.9 billion as a result of a number of circumstances, including the geopolitical environment, dangers including rising inflation, the recession in developed economies, the conflict between China and the US and Russia and Ukraine, and the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Meanwhile, as imports of gold, oil, and electronics decreased, imports fell 4.4% to USD 54.5 billion. Additionally, from April to November of this fiscal year, imports fell by 8.7% to USD 445.2 billion while exports decreased by 6.5% to USD 278.8 billion.The following figure shows the trend of India's Exports and Imports for the past 5 yea...

  India's CPI Inflation has been steadily declining after RBI raised the policy Repo rates by 250 bps over a period of about 18 months.CPI for Nov 23 has come in at 5.55% as against the RBI's upper band limit of 6%. CPI in Oct 23 was lower at 4.87%. 1. Food prices: According to the official press release from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the rise in food prices was the main driver of the overall inflation increase. Specifically, vegetables, fruits, and pulses saw notable price increases. 2. Global factors: The ongoing war in Ukraine and global supply chain disruptions continue to put upward pressure on prices for various commodities, including food and energy. This can indirectly affect India's inflation even if domestic oil prices remain unchanged. 3. Base effects: The November 2022 CPI figure was relatively low at 4.9%. This means that the year-on-year comparison for November 2023 naturally appears higher due to the lower base from the previous...

 RBI Governor Shri.Shaktikantadas emphatically enunciated RBI's policy for containing inflation in the month of Nov22 by calling its focus as "Arjun's eye"! In Mahabharata Arjun is eulogised for his single minded focus on hitting the targets with unwavering skill. RBI has succeeded in its mission in the last one year largely, by reducing the CPI inflation keeping it within the band of 2% to 6% for the last few months with occasional jump beyond the upper band of 6% induced by food inflation. In the recent policy press meet RBI Governor went one step ahead and mentioned that he has Arjun's quiver with all its arrows and weapons to tackle the inflation if it rears its head. He specifically mentioned that OMO being one such weapon is still in Arjun's quiver. He hastened to add at the end of the press conference that the Arjun's analogy is only meant to say that all kinds of weapons to kill the inflation are at his command and not to equate himself with the la...

 Govt has released the official NSO estimates for Q2 FY24 GDP growth rate at 7.6% which is a tad lower than 7.8% GDP growth in Q1 Fy24. This figure is stupendous but what are the pin pricks in sustaining this high growth trajectory in H2. 1)Agricultural GDP growth has faltered to 1.5% due to truant monsoon rains; 2)Personal final consumption expenditure grew at 3.1% as against 6% in the Q1. 3)Government Investments and Government Consumption have picked up due to higher fiscal deficits budgeted for the year; 4)despite higher Personal loans, Vehicle loans etc given by NBFCs and Banks ,why Personal Consumption is languishing- Is it because of higher inflation due to food &fuel?Are the new loans taken to payout old loans leading to recycling of loans? 5)Only Urban Consumption expenditure is showing some significant traction but Rural consumption is still  tepid and low. 6)Unemployment rate is holding steady but still not falling significantly. Moreover the Wage earnings over ...

 It looks like Corporate War fought through Proxies- what is visible is Supreme Court being egged on by Advocates and Lawyers like Prashant Bushan to go against SEBI(a Government arm).but men behind it are with deep pockets of short selling and international funding, who wanted to sabotage the dreams of retail investors and small investors of LIC& PSU banks etc. by hurting the business group of Adani. Ingenious game of Cloaks & Daggers- all in the name of election funding of Modi &BJP through the so-called "tainted money" by Adani. Smoke screen tactics and optics to divert the issue as an international fraud and financial malfeasance by planting motivated reports in foreign press and newspapers through NGOs OCCRP and the hit and run job of Hindenburg for the benefit of a Short-selling syndicate remote controlled by big foreign political & financial manipulators! Finally Supreme Court had to appoint a Committee of eminent professionals and jurists who in their ...

 IMHO, Supreme Court is Supreme and no Court can deny this- let alone a humble citizen like me! But without contempt and malice for the Supreme Court, I want to submit few points of view on the latest judgment of Supreme Court on the role of Governors. 1) SC has stated the obvious- Governors are not elected but titular heads of States. 2)They cannot sit tight on the legislation passed by Legislature indefinitely. 3)They will have to function in harmony with the State CM and his Cabinet. 4)they will have to abide by Article 200 of the Constitution of India. Nothing stated above are any new findings but simple platitudes repeatedly told to Governors. However the larger question of how can a State Legislature pass a bill which calls for replacing Governor by State CM for appointing Vice-Chancellers of Universities and expect Governor to give his assent to such a bill- the simple question as to how a Governor or for that matter, a CM be a judge in his own cause. Is there not a inbuilt ...

  India's trade deficit widened to a record high of $31.46 billion in October 2023, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. This was significantly higher than the $19.37 billion deficit in September 2023 and the $20.50 billion that economists had forecast. (all the above figs in US $ Billions) The widening trade deficit was mainly due to a sharp increase in imports, which grew by 26.2% year-on-year to $54.54 billion. This was driven by higher imports of crude oil, gold, and electronic goods. Exports, on the other hand, grew by a more modest 5.4% to $23.08 billion. (Imports Figs above are in US $ Billions) (the above Exports Figs in US $ Billions) The widening trade deficit is a concern for the Indian economy as it puts pressure on the rupee and could lead to higher inflation. The government has announced a number of measures to boost exports, but in view of dampening Global Trade volumes which are exacerbated by wars in Europe and Middle East theaters ,...