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S&P revision of India's outlook to "Positive" from "Stable"; RBI analysis says growth momentum is picking up in FY24-25.

 S&P Global Ratings revised India's outlook to "Positive" from "Stable" in May 2024, while affirming the 'BBB-' long-term sovereign credit ratings. This indicates that there is a possibility of an upgrade to 'BBB' in the future, but the timeline is not specified. S&P mentioned that they may raise the ratings if they observe: Sustained improvement in the central bank's monetary policy effectiveness and credibility , leading to a durably lower inflation rate over time. Continued robust economic growth that strengthens India's external position. Further consolidation of the government's fiscal position , leading to a declining net general government debt/GDP ratio. The actual upgrade to 'BBB' will depend on India's performance in these areas over the next 12-24 months. If India continues to demonstrate strong economic fundamentals and effective policymaking, an upgrade is likely within this timeframe. However, if...

Indian Exporter community may have to hedge their open positions, now!!

  Total exports of merchandise and services in FY 2024-25 begins with strong growth of 6.88% estimated at USD 64.56 Billion in April 2024 as compared to USD 60.40 Billion in April 2023. GOI has released a PIB release on  Trade metrics: Here are some key points from the release: Overall Exports: India's total exports (merchandise and services combined) for April 2024 are estimated at USD 64.56 billion, reflecting a 6.88% increase compared to April 2023. Merchandise Exports: Merchandise exports witnessed a modest growth of 1.08% at USD 34.99 billion in April 2024 as compared to USD 34.62 billion in April 2023. Import Growth: However, merchandise imports grew at a faster pace of 10.30%, reaching USD 54.09 billion in April 2024 compared to USD 49.06 billion in April 2023. Trade Deficit: This resulted in a widening of the merchandise trade deficit to USD 19.1 billion in April 2024. The PIB release also highlights some positive aspects within merchandise exports: Growth ...

"Redistribution" of wealth is easier said than done! But who is baking a bigger "Apple pie"?

 Y ou all might have noticed that Congress rhetoric is only on " redistribution " and has no clue on baking a bigger " Apple pie". They have relegated Building a Better and Bigger Bharat to irrelevance and they very well know only Modi can deliver a bigger shareable "Apple pie". Journalists and media have a responsibility in calling this bluff of Congress! Congress " redistribution" policy is for bitter and beggar Bharat and people will have to be educated that you cannot legislate to make poor , rich and vice versa is what Congress is intending to do! Congress has morphed into Communists - making CPM and CPI jobless already!!This Marxist, Maoist communist philosophy has no takers in today's world. We all know that you can distribute poverty and bringing everybody down to poverty is easier- it is like distributing the marks obtained by class toppers to everybody in the class!! After such "redistribution" t he marks left with the top...

Weekend musings!!

  Why Opposition Congress, Communists, and NGOs want Elections based on Ballot papers Because people want to create booth capturing and ballot papers/ VVPAT rigging scenarios where bombs can b thrown at the crowd to kill them while miscreants can destroy all ballot papers/VVPAT evidences etc. And finally they can blame Modi for rigging and not able to manage elections etc. If 100% VVPAT print out is given to the people, then also they can sell the printouts for money to the parties . How SC can stop selling of votes with VVPAT printout proof for higher amounts? Indirectly such VVPAT printouts will only encourage more black money to flow into our elections. GOI should bring in a legislation whereby the Elections are jointly funded by Centre  through Budgetary allocations.SC should support the Govt for greater control, stricter monitoring and vigilance over expenses of Candidates who stand for elections. Only this can minimise use of black money in elections.     ...

IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank-all three have revised upwards India's GDP growth for 2024 & 2025

  That's good news for the Indian economy. The World Bank and IMF have both recently increased their projections for India's GDP growth in fiscal years 2024 and 2025. The IMF expects India's economy to grow at 7.8% in FY24, which is higher than the government's estimate of 7.6%. IMF raises India's FY25 growth forecast to 6.8%; FY26 outlook unchanged: IMF noted that the g rowth surprised on the upside in the second half of 2023 as robust domestic demand fuelled activity, especially in emerging Asian economies.  and most notably India, recorded sizable positive growth surprises. In  India, we expect investment to contribute disproportionately to growth, much of it public investment The World Bank projects a growth of 6.8% for both FY24 and FY25, attributing this to strong private consumption and public investment.  Recently India's GDP growth forecast has been revised upwards by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Here's a quick summary of the key points: The A...

India's exports has come of age in FY 24

 February 2024 saw the highest monthly merchandise exports of the current fiscal year to yet. India exported USD 41.40 billion worth of goods in February 2024, up 11.86% from USD 37.01 billion in the same month the previous year. Petroleum products, engineering goods, electronics, organic and inorganic chemicals, drugs and pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products are the main drivers of merchandise export growth in February 2024. Exports of engineering goods reached USD 9.94 billion in February 2024, up 15.9% from USD 8.58 billion in the same month the previous year. Organic and inorganic chemical exports rise by 33.04% from USD 2.22 billion in February 2023 to USD 2.95 billion in February 2024. Exports of electronic goods grow by 54.81% to USD 3.00 billion in February 2024 from USD 1.94 billion in February 2023. In February 2024, the value of drugs and pharmaceutical products exported was USD 2.51 bn an increase of 22.24% overUSD 2.06 Billion in February 2023 Petroleum Products exp...

Current Positive Economic Indicators for FY 24-25 and beyond ,for Indian Economy

  GST collections and core sector growth in FY24 paint a positive picture of the Indian economy at the end of the fiscal year. Here's a breakdown of what we know: GST Collections: Reports indicate that GST collections remained buoyant throughout FY24. In February 2024, collections reached Rs 1.7 lakh crore, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [1]. This trend is consistent with the entire fiscal year, suggesting increased economic activity. Robust Core Sector Growth: The core sector, which comprises eight key infrastructure industries in India, witnessed strong growth in February 2024. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing activity rose to 56.9, indicating a significant expansion. Additionally, the output of these core sectors reached a three-month high of 6.7% in February, compared to 4.1% in January [2]. Connection Between the Two: A rise in GST collections often reflects a growth in economic activity. Businesses tend to collect and pay more GST as th...