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Despite ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties and disruptions in trade and supply chains, the Indian economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. India has effectively navigated these challenges, maintaining a steady growth trajectory. The percentage of economic indicators displaying acceleration has risen to 74% in Q3 FY25, compared to 71% in Q2 FY25. A robust rural economy is playing a crucial role in reinforcing stability and sustaining growth across various sectors. Consistent rural agriculture wage growth, coupled with increased domestic tractor sales and a positive trend in rabi crop sowing, further contribute to this positive momentum. These factors collectively highlight the strengthening foundations of the Indian economy.(SBI EcoWrap Feb25) Capital expenditure (CAPEX) is exhibiting improvement in Q3 FY25. While the majority of states' CAPEX as a percentage of Budgeted Expenditure (BE) was lower earlier in FY25, there's a noticeable upward momentum in Q3 FY25, wh...

  As of February 20, 2025, the Indian economy presents a mixed picture, characterized by resilience and growth potential tempered by notable challenges. Here's an overview based on the latest insights: Positive Aspects Growth Projections : Forecasts indicate India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently raised its GDP growth estimate for the fiscal year 2024-25 (ending March 2025) to 6.7% from 6.6%, reflecting optimism about a second-half recovery after a weaker 5.4% growth in the July-September quarter. For 2025-26, projections range from 6.3% to 6.8%, with institutions like the United Nations and Goldman Sachs estimating around 6.6% and 6.3%, respectively, supported by strong private consumption and investment. Macroeconomic Stability : The current account deficit is under control, at 0.7% of GDP in FY24, and foreign exchange reserves stand robust at approximately $630 billion. Inflation is expected to moderate, with Goldman Sa...

 How to reduce the litigation in Income tax Assessments under IT Act. 1)As per CBDT Time series released upto FY23-24, Pre-Assessment Tax collected which include TDS, Advance Tax and Self-Assessment Tax paid show almost 88% is collected ( IT dept link  ).Even out of the balance 12%, a major portion comes out of Central TDS, Dividend Tax,Equalisation levy which are also collected Pre-Assessment.Only a small percentage is collected by way of Post-Assessments and if we look at how much of Post-Assessment Tax lies in Appeals at CIT(A), ITAT, High Courts and Supreme Court,then we can get a fair idea of usefulness of Assessment process and procedure. 2)Since CIT(A) is the first Appeal level and there is a huge backlog of Appeals lying before CIT(A)s, we may even consider this Quasi Judicial Authority to be assisted by AI for speedy disposal of Appeals without prejudice to any significant fall in Tax collections since most of the Direct Tax(i.e 88% approx) is collected through TDS, A...

  My first thoughts on the Union Budget are positive:- 1)The Fiscal deficit glide path adhered to is good for the economy interms of containing inflationary pressures and also give macro economic stability in the medium terms which will reassure all the Global Ratings Agencies for a possible Sovereign Ratings upgrade.This will moderate Interest rate which is positive for Private Capex investments to pickup. 2)The medium term reduction plan of Debt to GDP bringing it down to close to 50% by 2030 shifts focus from Fiscal deficit reduction to Debt to GDP in a significant manner 3)Certainly Acche Dhin AAA(Triple A) Gaya for Indian middleclass- despite Dil Maange More , one should admit honestly that in one stroke FM Nirmala Sitaraman has both made life easy and also made filing ITR easy for them.   Inflation itself is a form of Taxation on the poor and for the middle class for whom Marginal Utility of Money is high, even one Rupee relief by way of Tax reduction will boost their sp...

  Domestic Developments Recent movements in high-frequency indicators suggest a recovery in H2:2024-25 from the slowdown experienced in H1. Supply chain pressures remained below historical average levels, despite a marginal uptick in December. Based on the economic activity index (EAI), the seasonally adjusted GDP growth nowcast for Q3:2024-25 is placed at 6.2 per cent. Aggregate Demand The first advance estimates (FAE) of national income released on January 7, 2025, placed real GDP growth for 2024-25 at 6.4 per cent, compared with 8.2 per cent a year ago. While private and government consumption expenditure increased, and net exports contributed positively, investment growth moderated. In fact, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) slowed to 6.4 per cent in 2024-25 from 9.0 per cent growth in 2023-24. A decisive factor in this investment slowdown was lower capital expenditure by both the Union and State Governments. On the external front, India's exports grew by 5.9 per cent in 202...

  Here's a summary of the press release on the First Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024-25 in India, including relevant graphs and tables. Key Highlights: Real GDP Growth:  The Indian economy is estimated to grow by 6.4% in FY 2024-25, compared to the provisional estimate of 8.2% in FY 2023-24. Nominal GDP Growth:  Nominal GDP (GDP at current prices) shows a growth of 9.7% in FY 2024-25, up from 9.6% in FY 2023-24. Real GVA Growth:  Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is projected to grow by 6.4% in FY 2024-25, compared to 7.2% in FY 2023-24. Nominal GVA Growth:  Nominal GVA has a growth rate of 9.3% in FY 2024-25, up from 8.5% in FY 2023-24. Sectoral Performance: Agriculture:  Real GVA growth is estimated at 3.8%, a significant increase from 1.4% in FY 2023-24. Construction:  Shows strong growth of 8.6%. Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services:  Registered a growth of 7.3%. Consumption Expenditure: Private Final Consu...

  The RBI Bulletin (December 2024) states that high-frequency indicators (HFIs) for October and November 2024 show a mixed picture regarding India's economic activity: A. October 2024: GDP Growth :  The economic activity index shows a pick-up in momentum during October, suggesting that the slowdown in Q2 was bottoming out. Consumer Confidence :  Consumer confidence indicators registered a sequential moderation. Amazon Supply Chain Pressures :  Supply chain pressures remained below historical averages, showing some further easing. Inflation :  Headline CPI inflation increased to 6.2 percent, exceeding the upper tolerance band, primarily driven by a sharp rise in food prices, although core inflation also increased. B. November 2024: GDP Growth :  Headline CPI inflation moderated to 5.5 percent, driven by easing food prices, suggesting continued economic recovery. Strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand fueled this recovery. Consumer C...