Why crowds are almost always wrong: the data behind herd mentality and market cycles The crowd is a terrible investor. DALBAR data, SEBI studies, and a century of market cycles show why - and what it means for how we think. July 11, 2026 · 12 min read A crowd of grey silhouettes all moving in one direction, with a single teal figure standing still facing away - illustrating the lone dissenter against herd behaviour TL;DR The crowd is a poor investor - and we have 30 years of data to prove it. DALBAR's 2024 study shows the average equity investor trailed the S&P 500 by 848 basis points last year. SEBI's 2024 study shows 93% of Indian F&O traders lost money between FY22 and FY24. This isn't incompetence - it's the predictable result of how human psychology functions under social pressure. Understanding why crowds are systematically wrong is more useful than any specific investment thesis. The most dangerous consensus in a room is the one nobody questions...
Blogging about Society, individual and collective behaviour/herd mentality, nudges, economics, business, politics, sports and spirituality and on all the other subjects about which I know very little !!