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Thoughts on GST Council - Heightened Uncertainty & Black Swan Risks

  Considering reciprocal tariff measures, now GOI is compelled to reduce Import duties.However domestic GST reductions are hanging fire for long esp on Health Insurance since Consumers do not have Bargaining power in the GST council to compel GST council to reduce the rates.  FM and GST Council will have to  keep this in mind and slash the rates from 24% to 20% and 18% to 15% inorder to minimise the tax burden on the common man who has no clear representation in the GST Council .This will definitely boost consumption by putting more money in the hands of the people and will more than offset the revenue foregone. In times of Uncertainty, Kindly  initiate steps to hear the Citizens' voice in GST Council. Is it not the Common Citizen who has an important stake as beneficiary of States' spending whereas FMs of the States have a mandate only to augment its resources to spend?Revenue side is represented whereas the beneficiary side remains unrepresented or under represente...

Tariff wars and its effect on Inflation & Economy

  Economists and the Federal Reserve (Fed) anticipate that increased tariffs, particularly those imposed by the Trump administration, are likely to push up inflation in the United States, at least temporarily, as businesses pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers .   Here's a more detailed explanation:       Why Tariffs Raise Prices: Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods, and when businesses face higher costs due to tariffs, they often respond by raising prices for consumers to maintain their profit margins.   Impact on Inflation: The increased prices due to tariffs contribute to higher inflation, as the overall cost of goods and services in the economy rises.   Fed's Perspective: The Federal Reserve has acknowledged that tariffs are a factor in its elevated inflation forecast for 2025, and that progress in taming inflation may be delayed.   Potential for a One-Time Increase-Short term or Long term: Some economists believe that the impa...

India's Economic Growth and Outlook and the Challenges lying ahead

 I ndia's Economic Growth and Outlook: The highlight of India's robust economic performance, with GDP growth reaching 6.2% in Q3 FY25, is the significant rebound from the 5.6% low in Q2 FY25. This positive trend is attributed to strong growth in agriculture and manufacturing. The FY25 GDP growth is estimated at 6.5%, projecting a 7.6% growth for Q4 FY25, although revisions are anticipated in May 2025. The real GDP growth rate for 2023-24 (9.2%) is the highest in twelve years, second only to the exceptional 9.7% growth seen in FY22. Significant upward revisions to past growth figures reinforce the economy's resilience. Sectoral Performance: Agriculture :  The sector showed strong growth (5.6% in Q3 FY25) due to a favorable monsoon and improved farm output. FY25 growth is projected at 4.6%. Industry :  The industrial sector also rebounded, growing by 4.5% in Q3 FY25, mainly driven by manufacturing. FY25 growth is estimated at 5.6%. Services :  The services sector d...

World Women's Day-The Heart (the seat of Mahalakshmi) in the Context of Sri Vaishnavism

The Interplay of Heart and Mind in the Context of Sri Vaishnavism In the rich tapestry of Hindu philosophy, particularly within the Sri Vaishnavism tradition, the conceptualization of divinity and the human experience intertwines through profound symbolism and metaphysical understanding. The imagery of Mahalakshmi, the Divine Consort of Lord Vishnu (Sriman Narayanan), residing in His chest is emblematic of divine grace and the virtues of love, kindness, and compassion that permeate creation. This symbolism invites us to explore the relationship between the heart—often viewed as the seat of softer feelings—and the mind, the rational faculty responsible for discerning right from wrong. The heart, in Vedic scriptures, is not merely an anatomical entity; it embodies the emotional essence of beings.Similar to our hearts supplying warm blood to the Brain, Mahalakshmi Thayar from the Heart of the Lord passes on Her Grace to the Brain which through the Supreme Consciousness/Mind controls the B...

Three Language Formula and TN Politics

 The purpose of "Three Language Formula" under the New Education Policy has been framed as "an enabling provision". In the noise created to arouse passions In the name of safeguarding our mother tongue, even the so called educated fail to appreciate that " three language fomula" is an enabling provision for students to choose any third language- no compulsion to choose Hindi. Moreover when Education is a fundamental right,my children should enjoy the freedom to choose ,learn, understand, and equip themselves in any language they choose and " three language formula" enables them- it is not disabling any child- only two language formula is crippling them.  Three language formula is both a burden and an opportunity. The formula is " an enabler" . For those who see this as an Opportunity, those children may learn any third language. Somebody said v have 22 languages will u teach all? Based on student's interests they may choose a langua...

Resilience Amidst Global Headwinds

Despite ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties and disruptions in trade and supply chains, the Indian economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. India has effectively navigated these challenges, maintaining a steady growth trajectory. The percentage of economic indicators displaying acceleration has risen to 74% in Q3 FY25, compared to 71% in Q2 FY25. A robust rural economy is playing a crucial role in reinforcing stability and sustaining growth across various sectors. Consistent rural agriculture wage growth, coupled with increased domestic tractor sales and a positive trend in rabi crop sowing, further contribute to this positive momentum. These factors collectively highlight the strengthening foundations of the Indian economy.(SBI EcoWrap Feb25) Capital expenditure (CAPEX) is exhibiting improvement in Q3 FY25. While the majority of states' CAPEX as a percentage of Budgeted Expenditure (BE) was lower earlier in FY25, there's a noticeable upward momentum in Q3 FY25, wh...

Outlook for Indian Economy

  As of February 20, 2025, the Indian economy presents a mixed picture, characterized by resilience and growth potential tempered by notable challenges. Here's an overview based on the latest insights: Positive Aspects Growth Projections : Forecasts indicate India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently raised its GDP growth estimate for the fiscal year 2024-25 (ending March 2025) to 6.7% from 6.6%, reflecting optimism about a second-half recovery after a weaker 5.4% growth in the July-September quarter. For 2025-26, projections range from 6.3% to 6.8%, with institutions like the United Nations and Goldman Sachs estimating around 6.6% and 6.3%, respectively, supported by strong private consumption and investment. Macroeconomic Stability : The current account deficit is under control, at 0.7% of GDP in FY24, and foreign exchange reserves stand robust at approximately $630 billion. Inflation is expected to moderate, with Goldman Sa...