COVID 19 pandemic .-some thoughts for all

some snippets about COVID 19 pandemic.

1) When bayes theorem is applied to the probability of somebody in India being infected with coronavirus then Bloomberg Quint says that it is 0.77%link as on 20th April 2020.

2) R 0 is the value which for this COVID 19 in India was anywhere between 3 to 4.5 when it started. Now according to some scientists this value has dropped to 1.36 by 20th April 2020 and is dropping. That means that one infected person is infecting on an average about 1.36 persons only which was as high as 4/4.5 at some point of time when the pandemic reached the Indian shores in March 2020.link

3)There are several strains of COVID 19 virus and some of the strains are not as virulent as others.

4)The Wire.in carried an article which says that Scientists are saying that the probability of one not infected by disease even when the test shows positive is as high as 33.3.%link

5)Even if infected, more than 80% are not showing any signs of discomfort due to their immunity level and out of balance 20% only 5% enter ICUs with extreme breathing distress and out of this few die to age factor and other comorbidities.

6) It is advocated that Herd immunity is one way that the country should aspire for to come out of this pandemic. However this argument may not be okay for India where the old, the invalid and the vulnerable live side by side with others. Large families under single roof is a common phenomena in India and there is no way to segregate the elderly from the younger population for quarantining.It also flies in the face of common wisdom "prevention is better than cure".Finally some doubt whether Herd immunity for one strain will be valid for other strains of COVID 19.

7)The second wave and the third wave as it happened at the time of Spanish flu can kill more people. But I hope that by that time either medicines or vaccine will be made available. many medicines like Remdesivir, Favipiravir along with HCQ have been recommended by doctors throughout the world.

8)Indigenous Ayurveda, Siddha medicines like Kabasura neer are also available which are recommended by AYUSH ministry as precautionary

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